Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 16.123761 19.575163 23.415904 27.982648 33.239357 39.075163 46.017298
2025-04-13 10.021287 14.124551 19.228039 25.937398 34.411590 44.640289 57.789263
2025-04-20 7.585391 12.008274 17.992805 26.454501 37.855095 52.410811 72.089474
2025-04-27 6.066123 10.626505 17.256161 27.208877 41.328154 60.159602 86.613738
2025-05-04 5.032684 9.663383 16.837981 28.179802 44.982763 68.213673 101.875501
2025-05-11 4.163030 8.736141 16.263134 28.744244 47.974743 75.424277 116.292497
2025-05-18 3.346574 7.696140 15.306190 28.533116 49.698859 80.839862 128.396300
2025-05-25 2.595938 6.583126 14.019371 27.579440 50.114135 84.270743 137.732621
2025-06-01 2.091645 5.820677 13.201193 27.258435 51.418315 89.005698 149.104953
2025-06-08 1.598123 4.938547 11.997634 26.087411 51.178340 91.287627 156.840869
2025-06-15 1.389051 4.653204 11.900463 26.874179 54.234416 98.828750 172.853535
2025-06-22 1.102387 4.085735 11.123406 26.280140 54.830743 102.433367 182.887225
2025-06-29 0.971045 3.925417 11.258926 27.601504 59.154718 112.728968 204.579829
2025-07-06 0.664133 3.131470 9.817988 25.598773 57.332609 112.831875 210.201413
2025-07-13 0.547975 2.883836 9.610482 26.111678 60.198634 120.974500 229.199117
2025-07-20 0.461708 2.699798 9.521379 26.858283 63.551162 130.110137 250.205551
2025-07-27 0.396650 2.564689 9.531454 27.819179 67.380507 140.255698 273.294984
2025-08-03 0.329916 2.385189 9.378568 28.377819 70.432498 149.150239 294.602797
2025-08-10 0.256574 2.125512 8.930461 28.168858 71.884475 155.206546 311.272434
2025-08-17 0.184895 1.811171 8.227919 27.225014 71.701761 158.222542 322.760200
2025-08-24 0.139893 1.601887 7.800679 26.907332 72.805206 163.654538 338.654188
2025-08-31 0.095283 1.337392 7.098415 25.748499 71.949531 165.299013 347.845892
2025-09-07 0.080170 1.273582 7.106652 26.527065 75.478247 175.527182 372.819012